As the focus of the horse racing world shifts towards Saratoga Springs for the 2025 Belmont Stakes on June 7, anticipation builds for the final jewel of the Triple Crown. Unlike its traditional running at Belmont Park, the race this year unfolds over a distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course.
Analyzing how the race’s pace might unfold is crucial for understanding the prospects of participants. A prime example of a horse whose fortunes rise and fall with the tempo of the race is Sovereignty, the recent Kentucky Derby winner.
His deep-closing style offers a compelling case study in how race flow can determine outcomes, making him a natural focal point in any pace-centric discussion of the Belmont Stakes.
Sovereignty: A Case Study in How Pace Shapes the Race
Sovereignty, a bay colt by leading sire Into Mischief, secured his spot as a top 3-year-old early in the year. He won the Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs, impressively finishing 1 ½ lengths ahead of his nearest rival, Journalism.
Following this signature victory, trainer Bill Mott confirmed that the colt would skip the Preakness Stakes on May 17, with plans pointing towards the $2 million Belmont Stakes on June 7.
This decision allowed the Derby champion five weeks of rest before contesting the race at Saratoga, a track where he debuted in August 2024.
The Art of Closing: Sovereignty Style
Understanding Sovereignty’s running style is fundamental to predicting his Belmont performance. This athlete campaigns as a deep closer, typically lagging well behind the early leaders and unleashing a powerful late surge.
In his Kentucky Derby triumph, the Into Mischief offspring rallied from 16th position among 19 starters, demonstrating a remarkable closing ability over the 1 1/4 miles. Such a strategy makes the Godolphin LLC-owned runner dependent on the specific dynamics of a race, particularly the speed set by front-runners and potential traffic issues.
Sovereignty’s success isn’t just a matter of talent—it’s intricately tied to how the race sets up in front of him. By examining his style, past performances, and how he’s benefited (or been hindered) by pace, we gain critical insight into how this year’s Belmont might unfold for all closers.
Navigating the Pack
A deep closing style inherently comes with risks, primarily related to traffic in a large field. A horse running far back must navigate through tiring rivals in the stretch. While ground loss from going wide is a consequence, it is often preferable to being trapped behind a wall of fading horses. Sovereignty managed to find clear running room in the Derby stretch despite being forced wide, sustaining his impressive rally.
The Need for Pace
A quick early pace in front of him is highly beneficial for a deep closer. Faster fractions upfront can tire out the leaders, allowing horses from the back of the pack to make up ground in the late stages.
For those examining Belmont 2025 betting angles, understanding the likely early fractions could provide key insights into which horses are most favored by the projected race shape.
Sovereignty capitalized on a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, which facilitated his late-running victory. Conversely, races with slow early tempos can compromise the chances of horses who prefer to close from far back.
Analyzing Performance Metrics
Sovereignty’s performances offer statistical clues about his capabilities over distance and under pressure. In winning the Kentucky Derby, the bay colt completed the 1 1/4 miles in 2:02.31 on a sealed sloppy track, registering career-best speed figures.
He earned a 103 Equibase Speed Figure and a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, marking significant improvements from his previous efforts. His finishing speed in the Derby was notable, completing the final three-eighths of a mile in 37.75 and the last furlong in 12.71.
Consistency in Closing Speed
The colt sired by Into Mischief has consistently demonstrated remarkable late speed. During the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes in October 2024, he finished his final three-eighths in a brisk 36.74, securing victory by five lengths. His 3-year-old debut saw him rally last-to-first in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth Stakes, utilizing a final three furlongs in 37.68. While he closed powerfully in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Florida Derby, he ran out of real estate when finishing second. These figures underscore his potent late kick across varying distances.
The 1 1/4 Mile Belmont Stakes at Saratoga
The 2025 Belmont Stakes distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga is the same length as the Kentucky Derby, a distance Sovereignty has already proven capable of handling.
Traditionally run at 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park, the temporary move and distance reduction due to construction introduce a unique variable.
Potential Pace Scenario
Predicting the exact pace scenario for the Belmont Stakes without knowing the full field composition is challenging. However, given that Sovereignty is a deep closer who thrives on a strong pace, the presence of other horses who prefer to be forwardly placed will be key.
The Derby runner-up, Journalism, is mentioned as a potential opponent, and a rematch could impact the early speed. If the field includes several runners with early speed, it could set up a favorable scenario for Sovereignty, providing the kind of tiring pace he needs to unleash his late rally.
Handicapping the Pace
For handicappers assessing the 2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, the early fractions will be a critical factor to observe. A strong, contested pace is likely to benefit Sovereignty’s deep closing style, allowing his impressive late speed to come into play over the familiar 1 1/4 mile distance.
Conversely, a slow pace could make it difficult for him to bridge the gap from the back of the field. Monitoring the running styles of the other confirmed starters will be essential in forecasting how fast the race might unfold and whether the conditions will align favorably for the Kentucky Derby winner.